Essays and notes.
I write about market formation, institutional risk transfer, and the financialization of new underliers. Longer articles are archived here; shorter notes remain on X.
Articles
A hedge is not a product
A contract can be bought. A hedge has to be constructed around an exposure.
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Credit already trades event risk
Or how to scale non-sports event contract markets: what synthetic risk transfer teaches about institutional ownership.
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Benchmarks are key to scaling prediction markets institutionally
Which benchmarks can actually do it, in what order — and why the benchmark slot is the one to own.
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Seeing Like a Market
The rationale for institutional risk transfer using prediction markets: a 90-page working paper and 87 contracts across five asset classes.
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In the Age of Claude, Philosophical Precision Is the New Assembly
Precise conceptual vocabulary as a control language for agentic reasoning.
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Welcome to Post-CT
Crypto Twitter as a market mechanism: from discovery engine and capital allocator to reputation interface.
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Benchmarks are key to scaling prediction markets institutionally
Which benchmarks can actually do it, in what order — and why the benchmark slot is the one to own.
Read →
Seeing Like a Market
The rationale for institutional risk transfer using prediction markets: a 90-page working paper and 87 contracts across five asset classes.
Read →
In the Age of Claude, Philosophical Precision Is the New Assembly
Precise conceptual vocabulary as a control language for agentic reasoning.
Read →
Welcome to Post-CT
Crypto Twitter as a market mechanism: from discovery engine and capital allocator to reputation interface.
Read →
Notes on X
Introducing Blanket
A public research product for discovering where listed event markets may partially fit small-business risk — and where they do not.
Statebook
A coherence layer above isolated books, organizing contracts by the states in which they pay.
The exchange stack is convergingVenue labels increasingly describe the front door, not the payoff stack.
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I was very wrong — the compute curve, correctedA public correction on compute markets, quoting the July 3 framework it revises.
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On Bartlett & O'Hara, “Adverse Selection in Prediction Markets”Reading 41.6 million Kalshi trades: what the absence of Glosten–Milgrom liquidity traders means for the book.
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Gracián and the luck surface areaL = D × T. The interior maximum beats either corner.
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Compute, sliced four waysThe level, the shape, the residual, and the jumps — and the instrument each slice gets.
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Private credit and adverse selectionWhy local underwriting and borrower monitoring matter when high-yield private-credit platforms move into unfamiliar markets.
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Hedgebook, version oneThe launch note and product demo: every company's real-world risk, mapped to live contracts.
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Cultural VictoryPerpetuals, event claims, and tokenized equity as different surfaces around previously unpriced states.
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Institutional event-contract structuring workflowThe full desk workflow, drawn: from exposure decomposition to documentation and recognition.
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