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“Draw a distinction.”
G. Spencer-Brown · Laws of Form

I work on how states of the world become financial markets.

I work on developing frontier derivatives markets and the risk-transfer architecture that allows them to function like established markets in rates, credit, and commodities.

Read on X Explore research

Now

Building a new venture focused on institutional risk transfer in frontier derivatives markets, initially event risk, alongside a former Goldman Sachs regional Head of FICC Coverage.

Also:

  • advising portfolio companies
  • consulting major exchanges and policy centers on event contracts and market design (below)
  • exploring and designing event-contract structures with potential originators
  • writing on X
Formation

Philosophy first.

International Philosophy Olympiad laureate in high school, then a first and a distinction at the London School of Economics. Internships at leading law firms followed.

My academic research at the LSE centered on systemic risk: pathological contagion models, Arrow–Debreu securities, and permutations of those securities structured around swaps. A separate strand examined the economic efficiency of the ISDA Master Agreement / CSA structure.

I like thinking about systems and how to best formalize them from a market-structure perspective. How they form, why they fail, what emerges from the wreckage. Mostly I am trying to understand information failure: who knows what, who cannot know what, and what happens in the gap.

Previous work

Vaal

2020–2021 · Built and sold

The European version of dv01: a plumbing engine for securitization, made with some of my best friends from the LSE.

Insrt Labs ┐

2022–2025 · Founder

I founded Insrt Labs to build financial infrastructure around NFTs. As that market contracted, we shifted toward consumer applications.

  1. Insrt / ShardVaults

    2022–2023

    Fractionalized RWA origination using non-fungible smart contract standards, with borrowing and automated yield.

  2. Insrt / Blast

    2024

    The first onchain gacha for NFTs and physical collectibles. Just-in-time redemption avoided tying up capital in prize inventory.

  3. Multiplier

    2025

    Extended the redemption mechanism to liquid tokens, with games routing new demand into spot markets.

We raised $3m from VC and shipped five audited products. Across Insrt and Multiplier, users spent $26m, with even more volume generated.

Wound down December 2025.

Independent work

2026–

Independent research and advisory work across market design, secondary-allocation transactions, major exchanges, and policy centers.

Work

Research work.

Public research product

Blanket

Small-business risk, mapped to Kalshi.

An independent product and market exploration for discovering where listed event markets can and cannot meet business demand: finding partial offsets, making basis visible, preserving no-fit evidence, and revealing where new markets may need to form. Blanket does not execute trades.

Blanket mapping small-business risk to Kalshi markets
Try Blanket Fortune feature

Research publication

Statebook

Markets for every state of the world.

An independent, noncommercial interactive publication about how continuous and state-contingent contracts can describe business risks that ordinary listed markets do not match. The cases and figures are synthetic.

Statebook interactive publication about exchange convergence and business risk
Markets for All States of the World Working paper

An order book organizes liquidity by contract. A statebook organizes executable liquidity by terminal payoff. The paper asks what must be true before that relationship becomes tradable: common state definitions, explicit payoffs, firm routes, and risk treatment that survives settlement and default.

In development

Research project

SLAM

Seeing Like a Market.

An empirical and theoretical research program on the institutional adoption of event-risk contracts and synthetic perpetual futures. It began with the original Seeing Like a Market paper, presented at the inaugural Kalshi Research conference in March 2026.

Seeing Like a Market research program
Visit SLAM Original paper State Risk Premium citation

Public reference

Hedgebook

Corporate exposure, matched to live contracts.

A dated, regularly refreshed Blanket publication connecting live Kalshi event contracts to the S&P 500 companies they reference, with company dossiers, issuer–market links, and traditional-market analogues.

Hedgebook connecting event contracts to S&P 500 companies
Explore Hedgebook
Writing

Selected writing.

Essays and working notes on market formation, institutional risk transfer, and the financialization of new underliers. Longer pieces are archived here; shorter notes stay on X.

A hedge is not a product

14 Jul 2026

A hedge is not a product

A contract can be bought. A hedge has to be constructed around an exposure.

Read the essay
Statebook A coherence layer above isolated books, organizing contracts by the states in which they pay. The exchange stack is converging Venue labels increasingly describe the front door, not the payoff stack. Credit already trades event risk What €800bn of synthetic risk transfer teaches event markets about institutional ownership. Compute, sliced four ways The level, the shape, the residual, and the jumps, with the instrument each one gets. Philosophical Precision Is the New Assembly Precise conceptual vocabulary as a control language for agentic reasoning.
View all writing
Library

Library.

Books I return to.

  1. 01 Seeing Like a State by Scott

    The map is not the territory and how a map can kill millions.

  2. 02 The Venture of Islam by Hodgson

    Civilizational history at its best.

  3. 03 Models of Bounded Rationality by Simon

    We all satisfice to our computational and emotional limits.

  4. 04 On the Nature of Things by Lucretius

    The most beautiful poetry ever written.

  5. 05 The Count of Monte Cristo by Dumas

    Patience as strategy. The revenge plot as mechanism design problem.

  6. 06 A History of Philosophy by Copleston

    The topography of the history of thought.

  7. 07 Critique of Pure Reason by Kant

    The only thing that still annoys me is that the Terminus is the Manifold.

  8. 08 Theory of Value by Debreu

    Beautiful, rigorous, and wrong in exactly the ways that matter.

  9. 09 Law, Legislation and Liberty by Hayek

    Cosmos versus Taxis. Spontaneous order versus constructed order. The source code for everything I work on.

  10. 10 Genetic Epistemology by Piaget

    The biological precursor to Kantian epistemology.

  11. 11 The Concept of the Political by Schmitt

    Sovereignty. Friend/Foe. Which is which?

  12. 12 Collected Poems by Cavafy

    Above all, don't fool yourself, don't say it was a dream, your ears deceived you.

  13. 13 The Origins of Political Order by Fukuyama

    How institutions actually form. The state, rule of law, accountability and why most places fail to get all three.

  14. 14 The Swerve by Greenblatt

    How Lucretius got rediscovered and changed everything. Ideas have material histories.

  15. 15 Laws of Form by Spencer-Brown

    The calculus of distinction. The mark at the top of this page comes from it.

  16. 16 From Third World to First by Lee Kuan Yew

    Whoever rules must have that iron in him. This is not a game of cards. This is your life and mine.

  17. 17 Changing Fortunes by Volcker & Gyohten

    Monetary history from the people who made it. Central banking as craft, not science.

  18. 18 With the Old Breed by Sledge

    War as it actually is. The corrective to every abstraction about conflict.

  19. 19 On War by Clausewitz

    Friction, fog, the continuation of politics by other means. Strategy as dealing with uncertainty, not eliminating it.

  20. 20 Simulacra and Simulation by Baudrillard

    We live in a hyperreality and it is only getting more strange. A prophetic monograph.